The federal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention had some good news this week for America's senior citizens - they can expect to live a lot longer than their ancestors.

The average life expectancy in the United States climbed over 78 years for the first time ever, in large part due to medical science and its ability to stop, or at least deter, the ravages of killer diseases.

A child born in this country today can reasonably expect to survive 78.1 years, up 3/10ths of a year from the life expectancy in 2005.

But before you break out the champagne and party hats, you might want to read the results of a study by the National Institute of Medicine, which essentially tells us those gains in life expectancy may have a troubling downside.

The medical science community that is so adept at turning back killer diseases is woefully ill-equipped to deal with the tidal wave of aging baby boomers, the first ripples of which are already lapping at the health-care profession's shore.

The Institute's report indicates there now is one physician certified in geriatrics for every 2,500 senior citizens. Here in California, the situation is even worse. A state legislative report earlier this year estimates there is just one geriatric physician for every 4,000 Californians age 65 and above.

To make matters worse, California faces a shortfall of 30,000 certified nursing assistants who specialize in caring for the elderly in convalescent homes, and nursing in general has an astronomically high job turnover rate.

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From a statistical perspective, some folks aren't worried, because California's median age is one of the lowest in the country. Still, the latest Census Bureau data tells us there are more than 4 million Californians age 65 and older - and that number is expected to more than double by 2030.

These numbers suggest many things, among them the need to encourage young people interested in a health-care career to consider geriatrics. Nearly 80 million baby boomers will turn 65 within three years. And in the two decades after that, the army of elderly will more than double.

Considering a career in medicine? Think of it this way - if you choose to specialize in treating the elderly, you're going to have plenty of customers.

June 13, 2008