Many couples today decide not to get married, since common knowledge says at least half of all marriages fail. These couples decide that it seems better to just live together and avoid the divorce. Then there are those who decide to try living together first before getting married, thinking that when they have been successful at that they might decide to formalize the arrangement by getting married.

Back in 1970, when Linda and I were married, we were the oldest in our crowd to finally do so. Linda had turned 20 just a week before and I was a worldly wise 21. Couples in those days were eager to get on with life after high school and college; marriage was a sign of adulthood. No one was worried about divorce; all of our parents were still married, so no one anticipated getting divorced. But by our third anniversary, we were the old married couple, all our friends were divorced. Yes, marriages fail.

The basis for decrying the lack of commitment in American marriages is rooted in fact and it is verifiable. Almost every year some cub reporter is dispatched down to the courthouse to ascertain the statistics from the county clerk's office. How many marriage licenses were issued? How many divorce decrees were issued? What is the ratio of one to the other? So, using imaginary figures, let's say there were 100 marriage licenses issued and confirmed, and there were 50 divorce decrees issued by the courts. One can quickly decide that 50 percent of all marriages fail. Jack Webb would be happy, “Just the facts, ma'am, just the facts.”

But the facts must be translated into reality; facts do not live alone. In this case there are lots of problems with the facts. One can quickly see that the first number, marriage licenses issued, is for a specific year, let's say 2007. Now, how many of those marriages failed in that year? You might be surprised to know there are many marriages that fail in the first year - humans can be impulsive and impulses can be wrong a good part of the time - but certainly not 50 percent! Plus, it would only be a small percentage that would be able to marry and divorce in the same year. So we can see immediately that we are not talking about the same marriages. We are talking in dissimilar statistical samples; marriages in 2007 compared to divorces from marriage in all years prior - if not apples and oranges, perhaps Rome Beauties and Granny Smiths.

Is there any way to really know? For several years now the Barna Research Group has conducted a national survey of marriages in America. They called up a random group of several thousand people and asked them about their own marriage. Their findings were very interesting. I believe that when the first study was done, almost 20 years ago, they determined that about 75 percent of first marriages succeed. That is, of the people surveyed 75 percent were in their first marriage and had no previous divorce. They found that of the other 25 percent, it was likely that there was more than one divorce. This past March 2008, they released the conclusions from their most recent survey and found about 67 percent were still in their first marriage and 33 percent had experienced one or more divorce.

It seems reality is slightly better than the simple 50 percent reported. But, it also shows that marriages continue to fail and the rate is increasing. Whereas the 50 percent ratio reported in the press has been steady for nearly 20 years, the Barna research shows the divorce rate is accelerating and will probably continue to accelerate. They found that Boomers (born between 1946 and 1964) already had divorced at a rate of 38 percent and it is likely more will divorce as the youngest Boomers are only 44, and X'ers younger than 44 are approaching those levels already.

Let's look at that living together first idea, too. Couples try this with the thought that they will have a better chance of succeeding when they finally marry. Yet, statistics on cohabitation have, for years, shown that couples who live together and then marry have a much higher divorce rate. Still, the number of couples living together outside of marriage continues to increase. Furthermore, the longer a couple lives together prior to marriage the greater their odds of divorce.

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I think there is a deeper issue here, Americans divorce at a much higher rate than any other industrialized country, and much higher than countries where marriages are arranged between families. Americans choose who they want to marry because they fall in love. But in years of counseling couples about marriage, I have found that most divorces happen because a person's marriage partner fails to make them happy anymore. Few people recognize that they probably didn't make their partners happy either. It would seem Americans expect someone else to make them happy with life. But few Americans understand happiness is a gift you can only give yourself. If you find reasons to be happy with life, your partner can learn to do the same.

But the simple truth is different than most people think; most marriages succeed, most first marriages succeed and people who do not live together first succeed more than those who live together first.

Steve Petty is pastor of First United Methodist Church of Lompoc, and chairman of the Good Samaritan

Lompoc Advisory Board. He can be reached at spetty.record@verizon.net.

June 20, 2008