The new year is starting off with a thud 8 2009 has brought us an economy in the midst of a major downturn, job losses by the millions, and rising prices in food, fuels and electricity. Looking around Lompoc, it seems one business after another is closing its doors or reducing its size.

If you?re like me, you?re spending time rethinking your personal expenses and cutting back to only what is necessary. The extras are getting fewer and farther between for many of us.

Hidden beneath these issues is something you likely haven?t heard much about on most radio stations, in newspapers, or on your evening news. It is, however, very real and is a growing threat. I?m talking about peak oil production.

First, I should clear up a common misconception regarding peak oil production. Peak oil does not mean we?re running out of oil. There are sufficient worldwide supplies to keep things operating at current levels for a short while.

What peak oil production does mean is the world has reached the point where 50 percent of the available supplies have been used up. We are currently in a plateau, and the capacity to increase is gone. Numerous fossil fuel industry experts believe this plateau was reached in 2005. Production levels will stay about the same for several years, and then begin a steady, terminal decline. As supplies run down, prices will increase dramatically. Virtually every aspect of daily life carries with it and underlying dependence on cheap and plentiful oil.

At the Jan. 6 Lompoc City Council meeting, I presented a brief synopsis of what peak oil means and how it could affect the residents of Lompoc and Santa Barbara County in the coming years. Here are a few of the facts I presented:

Of the 65 largest oil-producing countries, up to 54 have passed their peak of production and are now in decline, including the United States (1970) and the North Sea (2001). Globally, it is expected we will reach our peak and begin decline no later than 2012, according to the average prediction taken from all studies referenced.

Mexico?s largest and most productive field to date, the Chanterelle Field, is expected to deplete at an annual rate of 15 to 30 percent beginning this year. At this rate, the field is expected to be permanently capped off by 2014. Mexico is currently the world?s third-biggest supplier of oil to importing nations, and represents 25 percent of the United States oil supply.

The state of California announced in 2008 it is indefinitely suspending over 1,000 road, bridge and infrastructure projects. With increasing prices of oil, the costs of concrete and asphalt have doubled in the last 5 to 10 years.

Lompoc potentially faces the following problems in the coming years:

Declining revenues due to declining property values and declining family incomes; increasing costs for gasoline and diesel; inflation in the costs of equipment, materials, products, services and electric power; Increasing unemployment and homelessness; increasing crime; and resource constraints in providing basic services, social services and emergency services.

Sources of information include the General Accounting Office (GAO), the Department of Defense, the International Energy Agency, the California Department of Transportation and others.

On Saturday, Feb. 7, at the Lompoc Library Grossman Gallery, I will give a detailed presentation of the peak oil production issue, and introduce ways we can adjust our local economy to benefit Lompoc citizens, and Santa Barbara County. The presentation begins at 10 a.m. and is one hour, followed by a question-and-answer session. All citizens are strongly encouraged to attend. I also invite the City Council, the Planning Commission, Utility Commission, Safety Commission, city of Lompoc Engineering Department, local farmers, Lompoc Unified School District board members, and members of the media to attend.

A sustainable future for Lompoc will take creativity and teamwork. I look forward to seeing you there.

David Eccles is a Lompoc resident.

January 15, 2009